Preseason Rankings
Ohio St.
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#40
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.2#251
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.7% 3.3% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 4.3% 20.0% 7.1%
Top 4 Seed 12.0% 20.0% 7.1%
Top 6 Seed 22.4% 20.0% 7.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.8% 65.7% 40.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.2% 62.3% 36.9%
Average Seed 6.9 6.3 7.5
.500 or above 76.4% 89.2% 68.6%
.500 or above in Conference 58.7% 69.1% 52.4%
Conference Champion 8.4% 12.5% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 1.7% 6.4%
First Four4.4% 4.1% 4.6%
First Round47.7% 63.8% 37.9%
Second Round30.0% 41.9% 22.7%
Sweet Sixteen13.5% 19.0% 10.2%
Elite Eight6.3% 9.5% 4.4%
Final Four2.8% 4.4% 1.8%
Championship Game1.2% 1.9% 0.7%
National Champion0.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.9 - 5.51.9 - 5.5
Quad 1b2.3 - 2.94.2 - 8.3
Quad 24.2 - 2.78.4 - 11.1
Quad 34.0 - 1.012.4 - 12.1
Quad 46.3 - 0.218.7 - 12.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 36   @ Cincinnati L 64-65 38%    
  Nov 11, 2018 169   Purdue Fort Wayne W 82-71 90%    
  Nov 15, 2018 41   @ Creighton W 75-74 39%    
  Nov 18, 2018 348   South Carolina St. W 86-60 99.7%   
  Nov 20, 2018 322   Samford W 85-65 98%    
  Nov 23, 2018 281   Cleveland St. W 78-61 96%    
  Nov 28, 2018 12   Syracuse L 63-68 44%    
  Dec 02, 2018 68   Minnesota W 75-72 69%    
  Dec 05, 2018 76   @ Illinois W 76-72 53%    
  Dec 15, 2018 171   Bucknell W 79-68 88%    
  Dec 18, 2018 329   Youngstown St. W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 22, 2018 50   UCLA W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 29, 2018 255   High Point W 76-60 95%    
  Jan 05, 2019 10   Michigan St. L 68-73 43%    
  Jan 09, 2019 140   @ Rutgers W 70-62 68%    
  Jan 12, 2019 34   @ Iowa L 76-77 39%    
  Jan 18, 2019 32   Maryland L 69-70 58%    
  Jan 23, 2019 27   Purdue L 70-72 54%    
  Jan 26, 2019 35   @ Nebraska L 70-71 38%    
  Jan 29, 2019 19   @ Michigan L 65-68 31%    
  Feb 02, 2019 140   Rutgers W 70-62 83%    
  Feb 07, 2019 57   Penn St. W 70-68 66%    
  Feb 10, 2019 25   @ Indiana L 70-72 34%    
  Feb 14, 2019 76   Illinois W 76-72 72%    
  Feb 17, 2019 10   @ Michigan St. L 68-73 26%    
  Feb 20, 2019 62   Northwestern W 68-66 66%    
  Feb 23, 2019 32   @ Maryland L 69-70 38%    
  Feb 26, 2019 34   Iowa L 76-77 58%    
  Mar 02, 2019 27   @ Purdue L 70-72 36%    
  Mar 06, 2019 62   @ Northwestern W 68-66 47%    
  Mar 10, 2019 22   Wisconsin L 64-67 53%    
Projected Record 18.7 - 12.3 10.3 - 9.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 3.1 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.2 1.8 0.2 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.8 0.3 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.6 1.0 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.2 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.1 5.7 7.6 9.0 9.9 11.0 10.2 9.8 8.0 6.9 5.5 3.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 95.6% 1.0    0.9 0.1
17-3 86.4% 2.0    1.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 60.1% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.9% 1.8    0.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.5% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 5.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 54.5% 45.5% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 2.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.5% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 3.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.5% 100.0% 15.0% 84.9% 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.9% 98.8% 10.9% 87.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.6%
13-7 8.0% 95.2% 7.2% 88.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 94.8%
12-8 9.8% 82.7% 6.6% 76.1% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 81.4%
11-9 10.2% 67.2% 5.9% 61.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 65.2%
10-10 11.0% 41.4% 4.4% 37.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 38.7%
9-11 9.9% 21.0% 3.8% 17.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 17.9%
8-12 9.0% 5.6% 2.9% 2.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 2.7%
7-13 7.6% 3.2% 2.5% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.7%
6-14 5.7% 1.6% 1.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
5-15 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
4-16 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.5
3-17 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 49.8% 6.6% 43.2% 6.9 1.7 2.6 3.7 4.0 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 50.2 46.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 12.5 87.5